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Introducing the next big name in the goalkeeping world.
Welcome to the first edition of Scouting by Statistics, the series that takes a deep dive into the statistical side of a player’s game to suggest potential signings for Bayern Munich. This series differs from the sort of statistical analysis that might occur in an article for a rumor linking Bayen to a particular player in that the players featured in this series may not have any previous links to Der Rekordmeister.
Bayern Munich has had Manuel Neuer as their starting goalkeeper since his move from Schalke 04 over a decade ago, but at 37 years of age, the team captain’s time in the limelight will likely soon be over. If Neuer’s performance in Bayern’s 5-1 loss to Frankfurt on matchday 14 where Bayern had 2.08 xG to Frankfurt’s 1.32 is anything to go by, his decline may have already started. Although, having only recently come back from injury this display can be ignored so long as it stays an isolated incident and doesn’t become the norm. Sooner or later the player will drop off.
So, what is the solution? Reports in previous months have linked Bayern to the likes of Mike Maignan, Gregor Kobel, and Bayern loanee Alexander Nübel, the choice being proposed here is of a much smaller pedigree. Enter, Las Palmas goalkeeper Álvaro Vallés .
Vallés has been at Las Palmas since 2019 but hadn’t made a La Liga appearance until this season. The 26-year-old shot-stopper is yet to be called up to the Spanish national team, but don’t be surprised if that soon changes.
When identifying what aspects are most important for a Bayern goalkeeper, looking at the strengths of Neuer is a perfect guide for what characteristics Bayern would want. A high shot-stopping ability is a must, as a good goalkeeper should be able to directly prevent goals. However important the ability to make saves is, for a Bayern goalkeeper, who is likely to face fewer shots than the average goalkeeper two metrics are arguably more important, being sweeping ability and ability on the ball.
To represent these three categories specific metrics will be used. When gaining an understanding of a player’s shot-stopping ability, post-shot expected goals minus goals against (PSxG-GA) will be looked at. PSxG-GA is a measure of the quality of saves a goalkeeper makes and is a superior metric to the total number of saves made as it not only considers the quality of the shot but is less influenced by the volume of shots faced.
Sweeping ability is imperative for a Bayern goalkeeper, as Neuer is a master at coming out of his box. Any goalkeeper signing should be good in this area as it allows Bayern’s backline to step further up the pitch and protect the high line when it might otherwise get exposed. Sweeping ability will be understood in terms of the number of defensive actions outside the penalty area as well as the average distance of those defensive actions as this provides extra context for just how comfortable a goalkeeper is at going farther from their penalty area.
Lastly, ability on the ball will be judged by the amount of touches a goalkeeper makes in a match. While this isn’t entirely indicative of how good a goalkeeper is on the ball, a team isn’t going to play in such a way that their goalkeeper takes a lot of touches if said goalkeeper has poor ball control and passing. This makes it a fair metric to judge a goalkeeper’s comfort with the ball at their feet.
Looking at the percentile a top 5 league goalkeeper finds themselves in for a given metric is already a comparison of that player with others of the same position in the Top 5 leagues. To give additional context to Vallés’ abilities, the list below compares his standing to that of other top goalkeepers or goalkeepers who have been linked to Bayern in the past in the previously identified categories using information from FBREF.
Note: if viewing this article on a phone the category headings won’t be visible. The categories are listed in the following order: PSxG-GA, Defensive actions outside the penatly area, Average distance of defensive actions, Touches.
Neuer is still at the club, and when exactly he’ll need replacing is impossible to know. Bayern also have Daniel Peretz, who remains unproven as he is yet to receive any significant minutes in a Bayern shirt.
It should also be noted that further analysis including looking at a significant amount of match footage would be required to come to a final conclusion about the player. However, Vallés is both cheap and good enough (from a statistical standpoint) that Bayern should pursue the player regardless of the current competition for the goalkeeper spot.
Currently, Vallés is valued at 8 million Euros by Transfermarkt, a figure that has doubled from 4 million Euros in the most recent market update. With the goalkeeper’s stock rising, and his performances likely to garner even more attention across Europe, Bayern should aim to act fast.
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