In a surprising twist for the summer’s big battle, Barbie’s box office projections are more than double Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.
In a shocking twist for this summer's highly touted box office battle, Barbie's projections are more than double Oppenheimer's. Both films releasing in theaters on July 21 are from Academy Award-nominated directors, Christopher Nolan and Greta Gerwig, and feature star-studded casts led by the likes of Margot Robbie and Cillian Murphy as their titular characters. However, the two tentpoles couldn't be more different, as Oppenheimer is a bleak and partially black-and-white biopic chronicling the creation of the atomic bomb, while Barbie is a satirical comedy set in the wonderfully pink world of Barbie Land.
After early box office tracking for Barbie vs. Oppenheimer indicated that Margot Robbie's doll would come out on top, The Hollywood Reporter's new box office projections predict that Barbie's opening weekend will be more than double that of Oppenheimer. Barbie is projected to open between $70 million to $80 million or more, while Oppenheimer is expecting only a $40 million opening weekend.
Barbie vs. Oppenheimer is one of the most intriguing box office battles in recent memory because it was expected to be neck and neck. However, based on these projections, it appears the box office battle will be a blowout in favor of Barbie. Because it's become a social media, marketing, and merchandising phenomenon, the Barbie movie has built plenty of anticipation, so it could easily open above $80 million. Warner Bros. is being more cautious and projecting a $60 million opening weekend.
On the other hand, Oppenheimer is tracking a domestic debut in the $40 million range. This would mark Nolan's lowest opening since The Prestige in 2006, excluding Tenet which opened to $20 million at the height of the pandemic. What's hurting Oppenheimer is its R rating, Nolan's first since 2002's Insomnia, which naturally restricts its audience size, especially compared to the family-friendly Barbie movie. The acclaimed filmmaker has opened second before with Interstellar, which went on to gross over $700 million globally. Oppenheimer could have similar staying power, which is much more important than its opening weekend haul.
The box office prognosticators are even imagining a scenario where Oppenheimer opens third behind Barbie and Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One, which releases a week prior on July 12. This would be a doomsday scenario for Oppenheimer, but one that it should easily avoid. These tentpoles will be competing in a crowded field that also includes Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which releases on June 30. While these summer box office battles have been much-ballyhooed, all should be successful during their release windows.
Source: THR
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